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The task force that must recommend how much the University's enrollment should
increase has started its work by trying to understand the seemingly endless
repercussions of such growth.
Identifying and investigating all the possible effects of increasing
enrollment will occupy the Task Force on Student Enrollment for some time, said
Provost Dick Richardson, the group's chair.
That's because nearly ever aspect of campus life would be affected by
expanding enrollment.
The 16-member task force has started the laborious process of accessing the
impact of expanding the University's enrollment from the current 24,000
students.
"We are wrestling with a lot of questions," Richardson said. "We are trying to
do this responsibly and not just grab a number out of the air."
The task force was formed in response to the Board of Governors' request that
all 16 of the state's universities determine how much they could grow to handle
the expected surge of college students over the next decade.
The General Administration of the UNC System expects an increase of
approximately 40,000 students by 2008. Those 40,000 students include both
undergraduate and graduate students, Richardson said.
The state has not ordered the University to grow by any specific amount nor
has the task force discussed any specific enrollment targets.
Yet the task force's brief discussions on the size of any enrollment increase
reveal the reservations about growing exist that in the University community.
One suggestion on how the University might help the state handle the extra
students would be for Carolina to maintain its current portion of the state's
enrollment. That scenario would mean growing from approximately 24,000 students
to 30,000 students in 2005.
In contrast, Richardson asked the University's 13 deans to determine how many
more students they could handle, assuming they got the financial support they
needed. The deans reported that they could handle only 26,701 students by
2005.
Richardson described that gap of more than 3,000 students as a significant
item for the task force to address, but cautioned that decisions on such
specific enrollment numbers remain months away.
Gathering data
First the task force must gather a mountain of data on the potential impact on
everything from classroom and lab space to admission standards to dormitory
space to parking.
The task force tackled how increased enrollment might affect admissions
standards at the group's July 8 meeting. The discussion on the potential drop
in SAT scores showed how difficult a job the task force will have in predicting
all the repercussions of increased enrollment.
Jerry Lucido, director of undergraduate admissions, presented data on how SAT
scores would change if the University added 500 more students from the current
application pool to the Fall 1998 freshman class. Lucido estimated that the SAT
average would drop from 1231 to 1226.
But Lucido and other task force members pointed out that no one knows what the
applicant pool will look like in 10 years. The addition of 40,000 students to
the state university system's admissions pool could mean an increase in the
number of all types of applicants, including those who were highly qualified.
If so, Carolina could maintain or increase its SAT average by attracting the
extra top students.
"We are working in the murkiest world imaginable," Richardson said of trying
to make such predictions.
More tangible data should be available for future discussions about the
financial costs of expanding enrollment. Some of the needs that would come with
a price tag are more faculty to teach the extra students, more classroom and
laboratory space in which to hold classes, more cafeteria space to feed the
students and more student housing.
Dormitories will be a priority item because Chancellor Michael Hooker already
has pledged to Chapel Hill officials that the University would work to assure
enrollment increases would have little impact on the town. Hooker summed up
that approach with what he called "a bed for every head," meaning space in
dormitories for the extra students so that Chapel Hill's real-estate market
would not have to absorb more students.
The big picture
The task force also must address philosophical questions surrounding the
University's mission and place in the state. Task force members spent most of
their June 24 meeting describing their individual hopes for the University and
fears about what increased enrollment might do to Carolina.
Among the points raised were:
* The overarching concern that the quality of education not suffer;
* That "controlled growth" would not only help the state through the expected
problem of surging enrollment, but would help maintain the tradition of
Carolina being the people's university;
* Making sure that North Carolina State University did not widen its
enrollment lead over Carolina because that could create long-term problems for
Carolina in terms of funding and research support. N.C. State currently has
27,500 students to Carolina's 23,700; and
* Examining how other states have handled their universities. Several members
wanted to emulate how California maintained the campus at Berkeley as a
well-respected, flagship institution. In contrast, members cited other states'
systems where the system's reputation suffers because none of the schools stand
out as being particularly excellent.
The task force will continue to meet every two weeks with the goal of issuing
a report to the Board of Trustees in the fall.
Among the other consequences of any increase in enrollment that the task force
plans to discuss are:
* Student/faculty ratio;
* Additional faculty;
* More classroom, teaching lab and research lab space;
* More space for student housing, food services, recreation and health
services;
* Other space needs, such as parking;
* Technology infrastructure;
* Support staff; and
* Financial aid.
The task force does not have a particular order to discuss these issues, and
Richardson expects more issues will surface.
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