Trustees consider how enrollment growth affects resources, quality

As many as 80,000 North Carolina high school graduates will enroll across the 16 campuses of the UNC system during the next decade, and Carolina will be expected to admit its fair share.

That is the responsibility — and challenge — that Chancellor James Moeser posed to the University Board of Trustees March 27 before the presentation of two preliminary studies tied to enrollment growth.

“Chapel Hill will shoulder its share of that growth. And we will do it in a thoughtful, informed way,” he said.

The practical considerations related to growth — specifically resources and quality — were the focus of the preliminary studies presented to the trustees.

The first study, conducted by Paulien & Associates, looked at the demand for additional space that rising enrollment would trigger. Lisa Keith, associate principal with Paulien, said the University already had a deficit of nearly 1.4 million square feet of available space based on standards derived from multiple sources including UNC General Administration and adjustments recommended by Paulien for the current enrollment of 28,136 students.

The space deficit breaks down to 121,000 square feet of instructional space, 524,000 square feet of research space, 381,000 square feet of office space, 124,000 square feet of library space, 164,000 square feet of support space and 61,000 square feet of student space.

The University’s current enrollment approaches the 29,447 target that University trustees had approved several years ago.

Should the University reach that cap, Keith said, the deficiency in space would rise to 2 million square feet. If enrollment grew to 33,000 — a hypothetical number used as a point of comparison — the deficiency in space would climb another 400,000 square feet.

And as Executive Vice Chancellor and Provost Bernadette Gray-Little pointed out, the main campus has no more free space on which to build.

“With the capital construction program, we have come close to reaching the full capacity of main campus and becoming landlocked,” she said. “If we grow aggressively, where would we put facilities?”

As Gray-Little told Faculty Council members when she briefed them the next day, the campus master plan, developed about a decade ago, was based on 27,500 students — which Carolina has already surpassed.

A preliminary finding is that Carolina is utilizing space at the standard expected rate, she told the council. Using classrooms 30 to 35 hours per week with 80 percent of the room in use is considered full capacity. Compared to the national norm, Carolina is at full capacity, Gray-Little said.

Preserving excellence
The second study presented to trustees, undertaken by Art & Science Group LLC, looked at the possible impact of enrollment growth on the quality of the entering first-year class.

UNC General Administration’s projection of 80,000 additional students, while methodologically sound, is somewhat higher than recent projections by the Western Interstate Commission on Higher Education, Art & Science said.

After comparing the two sets of projections, Art & Science estimated the number of public high school graduates would increase by nearly 21 percent between 2011 and 2018, compared to the 2007–08 school year.

As the oldest public university in the United States and as the flagship of the UNC system, Carolina has a responsibility to respond to the growing needs of the state’s growing population, Moeser said.

At the same time, however, the University must do all it can to ensure that necessary resources are made available to accommodate that growth while not diluting the University’s quality or reputation, he said.

Carolina has sought to be the first choice of the top students in the state for generations, and the University continues to make headway in that area.

For instance, 73 percent of North Carolina high school seniors who scored at or above 1300 on the SAT applied for admission in fall 2007, and 39 percent enrolled. Similarly, 86 percent of students with an SAT score of 1400 or above applied to Carolina, and 45 percent enrolled.

UNC must do its part to accept more students, and at the same time, remain attractive to the best students across North Carolina, Moeser said.

But the Art & Science demographic forecast suggested that the pool of top-quality students will not increase in proportion to the overall increase in students.

Ben Edwards, the group’s principal and managing partner, said the number of in-state students who are top SAT scorers has not changed substantially over the past decade, even though the total number of students who took the SAT has increased.

Edwards said his estimates were based on the assumption that this same flat pattern will continue in the ensuing decade.

Changing demographics
A major driver of the growth in high school graduates will be the continuing increase in the Hispanic population. The number of Hispanic high school graduates is projected to increase by 377 percent as the number of white non-Hispanic students remains virtually unchanged.

Among other racial groups, Asian- American high school graduates are expected to increase by 72 percent, black students by 9 percent and American Indians and Alaska Natives by 6 percent.

Even if quality is maintained, Edwards said, the sheer size of the student body might deter some top students from choosing Carolina.

In fact, many of the top students in the state who inquire about Carolina, but do not apply, apply instead to top-ranked mid-sized institutions with 6,000 to 7,000 students, the study showed.

The Art & Science study is testing a range of strategies that Carolina might use to maintain or enhance its attractiveness to talented students even in the face of enrollment growth. As a preliminary step, the study modeled the possible impact of growth using the fall 2007 first-year applicant pool as a baseline.

This preliminary projection suggested that, in the absence of any intervention on the part of the University, growth in total enrollment to 33,000 could result in a decrease in the average SAT score of admitted first-year students to 1327, a 10-point drop from the average score of 1337 posted by students admitted in the current academic year, Edwards said.

University trustee John Ellison asked whether a 10-point drop was statistically significant for Carolina and its reputation as a highly selective university.

“A 10-point drop in a class this size is significant,” said Steve Farmer, the University’s assistant provost and director of admissions.

Ongoing study
Gray-Little said the University’s work to examine issues associated with enrollment growth would continue. For instance, administrators will seek additional input from students about their perceptions of educational quality and whether the size of a university affects their decision to attend a school.

Calling the challenge facing the UNC system “a virtual tsunami” for education, Moeser told the Faculty Council, “We must grow in a thoughtful way. The University’s motto is to do no harm during this effort and to push our university toward even higher levels of attainment.”

Information about the preliminary studies is posted on the Board of Trustees Web site at www.unc.edu/depts/trustees.